Eggs of Wrath

I’m dedicating this article to poor prediction abilities.

Children’s Week was this week, and about a month prior I’d been reading auction blogs about how to make money for the holiday. It seemed like one of the easiest holidays to cash in on. There were a bunch of sweets you had to eat in front of your assigned orphan (a little sadistic, no?), and some recipes required eggs. What’s the take-away from this? Stock up on eggs!

That’s exactly what I did. I put together a Dealfinder profile in TSM to snatch up cheap Small Eggs and Northern Eggs. After my daily AH scan, I’d run Dealfinder and inevitably pick up 20 or more eggs to deposit into my bank. That’s 20 eggs (give or take), each day, for 1 month.

Before I knew it, I had upwards of 400 eggs stocked and ready to go. I was anticipating a huge payday because I recalled paying ludicrous prices for eggs years ago to get this achievement. I was excited at the prospect of being on the receiving end of such economic slyness.

Children’s Week began with little fanfare, and despite posting my items an hour after it starting (I got sidetracked with Minecraft. Don’t judge.), I was selling for anywhere from 9g-20g per egg! I collected a good 400g in the first 24 hours alone, which put me at a slight profit for my investment.

The Crisis

Flash-forward to today. It’s mid-holiday, and egg prices have long since crashed. I’m still sitting on 200 Northern Eggs because Tasty Cupcakes- the food that uses said eggs for the holiday achievement- are going for 50s a piece. People are seeing the cupcakes listed at an extremely nominal fee and (rightly) just picking those up. Nevermind the fact the eggs individually cost more than 4 times the cupcakes themselves. Small Eggs are faring slightly better.

There’s no signs that demand is going to rebound. Each day I log in to 250+ items in my mailbox. I feel like a farmer collecting eggs, except my chicken pen is a mailbox. Offloading 200+ eggs after the holiday is going to be nigh impossible, and I’m not too excited about sitting on 10 stacks of eggs for a year.

The Hope

I’m hoping that people will realize Children’s Week is quickly coming to an end and demand will pick up during its final days. Smart players are probably waiting out the initial price bump. Lazy players are probably procrastinating their achievements because they love that adrenaline rush of packing in 5 hours of work into the last minutes before a holiday ends. I’m hoping these people will pick up my overstock, but unless some seismic shifts occur in the end-product sweets market, I’m going to be losing money or holding onto quite a few eggs.

It’s a bit silly that eggs could be giving me so much frustration. But it was ultimately my inability to judge my new server’s demand for holiday items (or alternatively, my server’s desire to craft holiday sweets from their base components).

The Lessons

How could I fix this for next time? First, I’m realizing that I should’ve looked closer at demand. The majority of players have their holiday achievements completed. The achievement-hungry have had their Violet Proto-Drakes for 2 years. They are the people that will buy items at any price for a few extra achievement points- and they’ll do it immediately. The market demand is now contained to new players (not many), returning players who never got this achievement done (very few), alts (not a reliable source of demand when it comes to holidays), and slackers (also not reliable).

Second, I’m seeing the effect of laziness. I didn’t look into it at the time, but Delicious Chocolate Cakes were selling for significantly more than eggs. I could’ve secured more profit and expended most of my egg stock in the early hours of Children’s Week by simply baking cakes. I was too wrapped up in selling tons of eggs piecemeal and not committing the resources to a finished product. Turns out people were (and still are) buying Chocolate Cakes in droves. Had I known this outright, I’d have netted thousands of gold in the first few hours easily.

Math Error: Should be 8 eggs per cake, not 4. Regardless, cakes yielded much higher profit than selling eggs piecemeal. Derp.

Finally, I’m appreciating the crucial first hours of holidays. Missing that first hour meant I missed the initial buy-up and price readjustment for the egg market. As I mentioned above, the majority of my egg sales came from the first 24 hours. Missing 1 of those hours likely cost me hundreds of gold (if not more). Next time a holiday comes around, I won’t be late to the game. If anything, I’ll be a few hours early to capture gold from people who think they can get the drop on things by buying materials before the holiday goes live on servers.

For now, I’m hoping demand picks back up in the tail end of this holiday. It’s been a disappointing week in gold-ville, but I learned some valuable lessons. Best of all, I learned without losing any gold. I’m not sure what my next “target” is going to be for gold-making, but next time I’ll definitely not be caught with my guard down.

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